XRP is back in the spotlight amid speculation regarding the SEC’s potential appeal of its recent legal defeat against Ripple. As the crypto community eagerly awaits the SEC’s appeal brief due by January 15, legal expert and XRP advocate John E. Deaton has made some intriguing predictions about the future of Ripple and its cryptocurrency, XRP.
Deaton expresses strong confidence that the SEC will likely withdraw its appeal, primarily due to the mounting risks it faces and the likelihood of a loss. This could open up a clear path for Ripple to focus on growth and even pursue an IPO by late 2025 or early 2026. However, the SEC’s decision is expected to depend heavily on whether Paul Atkins is confirmed as the next SEC Chairman.
Deaton highlights an important point: Ripple did not prioritize going public earlier primarily because it didn’t make sense under the previous SEC administration. He believes a change in leadership might alter that perspective. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has hinted at the IPO timeline as well, stating, “I believe we see a Ripple IPO either in the last quarter of 2025 or the first…”.
So, what could prompt the SEC to drop its appeal? Deaton lays out several compelling reasons:
- Limited Impact of the Ruling: The court’s decision from Judge Torres doesn’t set a binding precedent across other cases. The ruling primarily focused on the SEC’s failure to prove that XRP sales on the secondary market were securities under the Howey Test.
- Challenges in Court: Even if the SEC manages to win the appeal, there’s a strong likelihood that the case would revert back to Judge Torres, who could potentially rule against the SEC based on other legal grounds.
- Risk of Supreme Court Loss: Should the SEC escalate this case to the Supreme Court, it may risk a judgment that favors cryptocurrencies. This outcome could create a precedent that the SEC would likely prefer to avoid.
Under new leadership, particularly if Paul Atkins takes the helm, Deaton believes the SEC might reassess the risks involved and choose to withdraw its appeal, possibly resolving the case with Ripple agreeing to pay a fine. This could finally put an end to a long-standing legal battle.
If the SEC withdraws its appeal, Ripple would undoubtedly focus on its growth strategies, including its IPO plan. Such a move could significantly bolster Ripple’s resources, legitimacy, and expansion opportunities within the industry.
For XRP holders, this could translate into remarkable price increases, with analysts forecasting that it could surpass its previous all-time high of $3 and potentially reach as much as $19, driven by newfound regulatory clarity and investor confidence.
Yet, despite the positive outlook, it’s crucial to acknowledge that Judge Torres’ ruling hasn’t won universal acclaim. Some legal experts, like Judge Rakoff, have scrutinized its reasoning. The ruling’s narrow focus means it specifically calls out the SEC’s inadequacies in meeting the Howey Test criteria regarding this case, leaving other digital asset sales still vulnerable.
Even if the SEC were to succeed on appeal, the case could revert back to Judge Torres, who might conclude similarly by drawing from different elements of the Howey Test. This reality underscores the potential futility of the SEC’s appeal.
If Ripple ultimately wins, it could signify a pivotal moment for the entire cryptocurrency industry. A successful IPO for Ripple would illuminate how regulatory clarity can be a catalyst for innovation and growth. It wouldn’t just solidify Ripple’s position but also chart a course for other crypto firms striving for compliance and expansion.
With Deaton’s forward-looking predictions painting a bright future, the idea of XRP reaching new heights and Ripple pioneering advancements in the crypto sector becomes increasingly plausible. Meanwhile, the SEC’s approach may gradually shift towards a more practical regulatory framework, benefiting the entire industry.
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