Solana (SOL) is off to an exciting start this year, driven by significant market activity and buzzing speculation around the potential approval of a US exchange-traded fund (ETF). This optimism was recently highlighted by a $55 million transfer from the fee account of the meme coin platform Pump.fun to the cryptocurrency exchange Kraken. This transfer acted like a shot of espresso for Solana’s price, propelling it up by an impressive 10%.
As investors and analysts keep a keen eye on the evolving cryptocurrency landscape, a growing sense of positivity surrounds the idea of a US spot Solana ETF emerging in 2025. Such a development could reshape Solana’s position within the competitive cryptocurrency environment, potentially bringing in a wave of institutional investment. The atmosphere brims with anticipation, resonating profoundly among traders and enthusiasts.
Industry experts hold an optimistic outlook regarding the likelihood of Solana’s ETF debut. Matthew Sigel, the head of research at VanEck, has shared insights hinting at a higher probability of regulatory approvals than many expect. In a recent post on X, Sigel echoed the sentiment that growing optimism is influencing the cryptocurrency industry’s outlook on potential ETF listings under a newly elected political administration.
According to Polymarket, a cryptocurrency prediction platform, the odds for a Solana ETF in the US by 2025 started at 77% on January 1 and have since risen to 84% by January 2. This upward trend clearly indicates a bullish sentiment among bettors. Sigel regards this initial forecast as “underpriced,” implying that the chances of a Solana ETF approval could be even more promising than the current figures suggest.
The enthusiasm surrounding Solana ETF prospects also gains momentum from President-elect Donald Trump’s open support for cryptocurrencies. Following his election win in November, Trump has expressed intentions to establish the United States as “the world’s crypto capital.” This promising stance has sparked hopes for a more supportive regulatory environment for digital assets.
Many industry insiders recognize Trump’s pro-crypto agenda as a possible factor in accelerating the approval process for various cryptocurrency ETFs currently under scrutiny by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Analysts believe that a number of proposed crypto ETFs could see the green light in the coming years.
Yet, Solana ETFs are not without their challenges. In June, VanEck and 21Shares filed applications with the SEC to list spot Solana ETFs. However, the SEC has raised concerns about whether SOL should be classified as a security or a commodity, introducing a layer of complexity to its ETF eligibility.
Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs are the only cryptocurrency ETFs permitted on US exchanges, utilizing a specialized “grantor trust” structure aimed at single-commodity funds. For Solana ETFs to thrive, they must conform to the SEC’s regulatory expectations.
As 2025 approaches, the cryptocurrency industry is brimming with hope for significant milestones. Rising odds for Solana ETF approval echo broader market optimism. Bettors don’t just foresee new ETF listings; they also anticipate a resurgence in cryptocurrency prices, with projections suggesting Bitcoin and Ethereum might reach new all-time highs.
Sigel remains confident about Solana’s prospects, asserting that the odds of securing approval for Solana ETFs are “overwhelmingly high.” This optimism reflects a shifting landscape that might be more accommodating to cryptocurrency innovations under Trump’s administration, potentially opening the gates for a wave of new ETFs.
In the betting markets, platforms like Polymarket are gaining a reputation for their accuracy in forecasting major events, including Trump’s election win and the Republican Party’s control over Congress. With nearly $2 billion in trading volume recorded in December alone, Polymarket has established itself as a crucial indicator of market sentiment.
The confluence of regulatory challenges, market sentiment, and political developments sets the stage for a remarkable year ahead for cryptocurrency ETFs in 2025. As optimism swells over Trump’s supportive policies and the evolving regulatory landscape, the anticipated approval of Solana ETFs could signify a noteworthy achievement for the industry.
Meanwhile, Solana continues to surge, experiencing a 10% jump to over $200 following the recent $55 million transfer to Kraken. This price movement has rekindled bullish sentiments in the market, with traders eyeing potential further gains.
On January 1, Solana rebounded following a short dip to $189 at 5:00 PM UTC, thanks to the influential transfers from Pump.fun’s fee account. Data reveals two significant deposits: $22.8 million at 4:37 PM UTC and $32.7 million at 5:45 PM UTC. These transfers eased selling pressure, enabling Solana’s impressive recovery. Notably, Pump.fun has contributed significantly to Solana’s price dynamics throughout the year.
While Pump.fun’s activities delivered immediate boosts to Solana’s price, the overarching ETF narrative is likely to shape the asset’s future. As anticipation grows for a spot Solana ETF approval in the US, industry experts speculate that prices could rally all the way to $400 should approval be granted. Alejo Pinto, the founder of the Solana layer-2 network Lumio, believes that this potential approval, still unpriced in Solana’s current value, would have a profoundly positive effect on the asset.
Many leading asset management firms, including VanEck, Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Canary Capital, are actively pursuing approvals for Solana ETFs. With deadlines approaching, Grayscale’s application is due for a decision by January 23, with preliminary decisions for other applicants expected by January 25.
A significant precedent has already been established: Brazil successfully approved its first Solana ETF on August 7, 2024, underscoring the growing institutional interest in this promising altcoin. With all eyes on 2025, the excitement continues to build.
