Speculation about the future of bitcoin has reached a fever pitch, but recent insights from Galaxy Research suggest that the U.S. government won’t be establishing a bitcoin reserve in 2025. In a report released on December 27, it was made clear that while discussions and interest swirl around institutional adoption of bitcoin, the federal stance remains decidedly cautious.
Currently, the U.S. government holds a substantial 183,850 BTC, valued at about $17.36 billion, distributed across 36 known addresses. However, plans to increase this position in 2025 are off the table. Alex Thorn, who leads research at Galaxy, emphasized that authorities would rather capitalize on their existing bitcoins than embark on new, significant purchases.
This strategy starkly contrasts with the ambitious Bitcoin Act 2024, proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis from Wyoming. This act proposed ramping up the government’s holdings by an additional 200,000 BTC each year over a span of five years, aiming for a target of one million over two decades. However, such grand visions seem increasingly unlikely in the short term.
Interestingly, the report hints that some sectors within the government could be contemplating an “expanded bitcoin reserve policy,” which might indicate a slow but steady shift in strategy over time.
Globally, the U.S. government’s attitude is poised to influence how other nations manage their approach to bitcoin. In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has openly stated that he wants to observe the U.S. position before committing to a bitcoin reserve policy of his own.
Analysts like JW from Galaxy Research predict that several companies from the Nasdaq 100 and a handful of countries may still consider adding bitcoin to their reserves in 2025. This speculation is echoed by former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, who foresees increasing adoption of bitcoin reserves among various nations, with China potentially leading the charge.
While the U.S. government’s wait-and-see strategy for 2025 may seem lackluster, it doesn’t hinder the prospect of international evolutions in the cryptocurrency sphere. Initiatives like the State of Ohio’s recent HB 703 bill demonstrate that institutional adoption could surface first at state and corporate levels before trickling up to the federal government.
In a landscape as dynamic as cryptocurrency, waiting to see how the U.S. decision plays out may not be the end of the story—just a new chapter in a continually developing saga.
